From the AGU monograph on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 293, 85-89. The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is negatively correlated with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, meaning when the tropical Pacific is cooler than average (La Nia), the Gulf of Mexico is usually warmer than average. Blue shading shows As the calendar turned to December, the storm track shifted northward, directing the rain and mountain snow toward Washington and British Columbia, Canada. In the maps, the CPC forecasts show the probability of the favored categoryonly when there is a favored category;otherwise, they show EC (equal chances). wind chill, blowing snow), Does not include mixed precipitation or freezing rain explicitly (a preciponly version of AWSSI may help address the impacts of these events). An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. The location of the convective phases is often grouped into geographically based stages that climate scientists number 1-8 as shown in Figure 1. Often, the near-normal category remains at 33.33%, and the category opposite the favored one is below 33.33% by the same amount that the favored category is above 33.33%. The winter season begins when the first of any one of the following instances occur: First measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch) Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and South Convection remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia[Fig. According to his winter forecast for 2022-2023, one half of the United States would experience extremely cold and a ton of snow, while the other . La Nia refers to abnormally cold water temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial waters (5N-5S, 120-170W)] of the Pacific Ocean. for the Upper Mississippi River Valley During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, abnormal height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia. The Farmers' Almanac released their winter weather outlook, and Oklahoma is predicted to have chilly, snowy conditions throughout the season. There has been a fair amount of variability in the winter temperature and precipitation patterns during La Nia, but also that there are some clear tendencies for above or below normal temperature or precipitation in some regions. The 2022-2023 winter, depending on where you live, will either be the best winter ever or memorable for all the wrong reasons, predicts Janice Stillman, publisher of The Old Farmer's Almanac. The MJO becomes organized during late March through May as the green shading covers one half of the planet, and brown shades the other half all along as these areas move west to east with time. Arkansas's central location allows weather systems from all directions to influence its climate. The La Nia phase is projected to weaken during the second half of the winter, which may open the door for storms to take a more southerly track into California, rather than focusing on the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. In the long . All of the latest weekly Nio index values were near -1.0C, with the exception of Nio-1+2 which was at -1.8C[Fig. The CPC winter temperature forecasts to the right show the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. In recent winters, there have been cold spells in Florida that sent the mercury dipping down into the 30s and 40s F, enough to cause frost and freeze in the typically warm state, which can endanger some of the state's temperature-sensitive citrus crops. In summary, there is a 76% chance of La Nia during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance;[Fig. The 2022-2023 winter season may have record-breaking cold temperatures of 40 degrees below zero in some places in the US! How bad is winter 2022-2023 be? Stronger cold fronts? Outside of that region, New England is one of the only areas east of the Rocky Mountains where snowfall could end up being above normal. These shifts would also be expected to impact thunderstorm activity: El Nio tends to shift the jet stream farther south over the U.S., which blocks moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the fuel for thunderstorms. Educational Resources The status of the PDO between 1950 and this year, shown at bottom, indicates a predominantly positive phase from about 1978 to 1998 and a negative phase since 1999. The US average is 38 inches of rain per year. Temperatures 48 / 33 Rainy Days 5 Snowy Days 2 Dry Days 24 Rainfall 2.72 in Sun Hours 8.6 Also, there is a tendency toward below-average snowfall over the mid-Atlantic, New England, and northern and central Plains, which is not seen during weak La Nia. La Crosse has seen 8 in the wettest third, 8 near normal, and 8 in the driest third. The best chances for snow in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February. The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. SkyWarn "I think going forward, even though we're in the La Nia [phase], it may be just too mild at the middle part of the season to get a lot of frequent [snow] events," Pastelok explained. At the top of the atmosphere, the winds reverse (i.e., diverge). Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian Oscillation. 1]. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. Multiple locations were found. Webinar for the NWS Central Region, February 2017. However the majority of ice storms have hit during La Nia winters. The mild start to the winter will not necessarily be indicative of what is foreseen to unfold across the region after the calendar flips to 2023. Take a look at the official winter predictions with a summary from The 2023 Old Farmer's Almanac. A few of these dates include: The first week of January in the Rockies and across the Plains. Overall we are expecting much of western Arkansas to receive 6-12 inches of snow by mid March. Wallace, 2001: Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode. In the South and Southeast, where the signal is strongest, we see a clear shift in activity with the ENSO phase, but with a tremendous range of variability, meaning some El Nio years still have high severe weather activity, and some La Nia years are relatively inactive. Maximum temperature at or below 32F NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecastfor the upcoming winter months of December-February: While a weak to moderate La Nia is expected to impact the weather across much of the United States, its impacts in the Upper Mississippi River Valley can be highly variable with both temperatures and precipitation. La Crosse has only had 1 winter in the coldest third and Rochester has only had 2 winters (2013-14 & 2018-19) in the coldest third. Dispatch / Law Enforcement Arkansas averages 4 inches of snow per year. February 28/29 AWSSI Point Thresholds. Rainfall increases over Indonesia (where waters remain warm) and decreases over the central tropical Pacific (which is cool). Instead of only looking at individual weather events, its important to consider the environmental cues for the outbreak of severe weather. Last measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch) ", Have the app? As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall. However, because temperature also plays an important role in snowfall, some predictability is likely nonetheless. Climate Dyn.,40,17491766. The AWSSI is not limited to meteorological winter (December February) but is intended to capture winter weather from its earliest occurrence to its last. StormReady AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, has made its annual prediction for the upcoming winter season, giving people all across the country time. (Japan Meteorology Agency via AP), Volcanic eruptions rarely inject much water into the stratosphere, NASA said. The volcano spewed an unprecedented amount of debris high into Earth's atmosphere which, as Pastelok will explain, could still be having an effect on the weather on a global scale. This year, with the extreme summer weather conditions broiling the country, and the growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil, Farmers' Almanac is releasing its winter weather forecast earlier than ever. With snow accumulation up to 88 inches, and entire summers with temperatures below freezing, the northern hemisphere was rattled with Satan's snow. Riddle,E. E.,M. B.Stoner,N. C.Johnson,M. L.LHeureux,D. C.Collins, andS. B.Feldstein,2013:The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region. Madden R. and P. Julian, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. Equal chance display areas where confidence is low, so there is an equal chance of it being among the wettest third, near-normal, or among the driest third. . . For more details on why these shifts were made, please see the local winter outlook tab below. Follow Us On Social Media, Weather Safety Arkansas winter 2021-2022 outlook. View detailed forecast, WeatherTAB 2023. ARKANSAS, USA Pre-season cold blasts have already brought rounds of snow and chilly air to Arkansas, but will this continue December, January, and February? Hourly Weather Snowstorms will occur at times this winter. But will there be more snow? Figure3: The surface and upper-atmosphere structure of the MJO for a period when the enhanced convective phase (thunderstorm cloud) is centered across the Indian Ocean and the suppressed convective phase is centered over the west-central Pacific Ocean. This once-in-a-lifetime eruption was so powerful that it sent shockwaves around the world and caused the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere to increase by around 5%, according to a recent report by The Associated Press. The snowfall totals will be boosted by a few nor'easters, with January and March bringing the highest chances of powerful coastal snowstorms. Posted: Oct 15, 2021 / 05:14 PM CDT. The Euro precipitation forecast outlines the major areas of concern with our snowfall outlook. Two important ingredients for tornadoes areatmospheric instability(e.g., warm, moist air near the surface and cool dry air aloft) andvertical wind shear(winds at different altitudes blowing in different directions or speeds). Well, according to our extended forecast, there should be quite a few significant winter weather disturbances nationwide in 2022-2023. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. This was based on recent trends over the past decade. These two boundaries define three categories: below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal. Could the upcoming flu season spell trouble for the US? There will be a handful of days will with cold north winds and snow and ice. On average, the winter tends to be 1-2 degrees warmer December through February. Will it be a harsh winter for your area? The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Nio-3.4 SST index indicates La Nia will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023[Fig. "But we can see some moderate systems and occasionally one bigger period where it does get hit hard in the Northwest.". Since late July 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have been quite persistent[Fig. "Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened in the east-central Pacific Ocean during October[Fig. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File). In the suppressed convective phase, winds converge at the top of the atmosphere, forcing air to sink and, later, to diverge at the surface (Rui and Wang, 1990). The recent weakening of the trade winds suggests below-average SSTs may be near their minimum, though considerable uncertainty remains over how gradually the anomalies will decay. Try searching for a city, zip code or point of interest. Lets dig a little deeper and look at some of the characteristics within these two convective phases (Figure 3). The new storm track during the second half of the winter will focus on the eastern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, but bouts of heavy snow, and even blizzard conditions, cannot be ruled out on the northern and western sides of these storms. Figure by climate.gov; data from the authors. Climate,22, 4097-4116. However, in the last week, the low-level trade winds weakened in association with sub-seasonal tropical variability. Will it be a snowy one? Viewed from above either pole, these patterns show a characteristic ring-shape or "annular" pattern; thus, AO and AAO are also referred to as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), respectively. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. The snowfall forecast focuses the most snowfall on the Midwest. Climate in Arkansas Arkansas, Arkansas gets 51 inches of rain, on average, per year. Even when it does snow during the week, the impacts on daily routines may not be the same as they were a few years ago. With this in mind, AccuWeather is ready to make its annual prognostication and unveil a detailed region-by-region breakdown of the U.S. winter forecast as well as seasonal snowfall predictions for six of the nation's biggest cold-weather cities: A mild winter is in the forecast for most of the southeastern U.S., but it's not the air temperature that AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close eye on. 4]. J. Drought conditions could become worse in some regions of the West with the winter forecast to begin on a dry note. However, tornado and severe weather activity is more variable (noisier and harder to predict) than ordinary weather (think temperature and precipitation), and any ENSO signal is harder to see. This results in more upwelling of cold water off the Peruvian coast which results in even colder waters in the central and eastern equatorial waters. Since 1900, this has only happened 4 times. Freezing rain, drizzle and sleet is in the forecast, and a winter weather advisory is in effect for Anne Arundel County from 6 a.m. until 2 p.m. Friday. Imagine ENSO as a person riding astationaryexercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. Positive values indicate increased activity, and negative values indicate decreased activity compared to the long-term average (1979-2015). Sea surface temperature pattern showing the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (top). Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Higgins, W., J. Schemm, W. Shi, and A. Leetmaa, 2000: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. United States Snow, Arkansas Long Range Weather Forecast 30 days and beyond. Measures of these tornado-friendly ingredients can be combined into indexes that are less noisy than actual tornado reports and let us see how the phases of ENSO make the environment more or less favorable for severe weather (footnote 1). Image Credit: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. This series of maps shows precipitation patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The AO's positive phase is characterized by lower-than-average air pressure over the Arctic paired with higher-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. "The main storm track will be even farther north than it was the first half of the winter season last year including the late fall.". WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Every year the Farmer's Almanac releases their prediction for the upcoming winter, and the forecast for 2022-23 is looking like a very wet and cold winter. Released: November 17, 2022. Unfavorable things for a colder-than-normal winter. "With the new technology that we have -- that's one of the good things that came out of COVID -- if a snow day comes around, we want to make sure that our kids continue to learn. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earths global average temperature.. Thus, the mid-latitudes of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia generally see fewer cold air outbreaks than usual during the positive phase of the AO. Last January, accumulating snow was observed on just four days throughout the month, amounting to 12.3 inches. Arctic Oscillation) may be at play and is worth further investigation. Central Arkansas can expect to see slightly warmer and wetter than average conditions. Strong MJO activity often dissects the planet into halves: one half within the enhanced convective phase and the other half in the suppressed convective phase. Pastelok said that February is the month to watch for the polar vortex to usher in brutally cold Arctic air across the Rockies and most of the central U.S. and, in response, cause the energy demand across the regions to surge. You can expect to have about 11 days with temperatures under 32F, or 38% of time. And 6 of the 11 events produced wet conditions in the Ohio Valley, which is slightly more than half, but far from a guarantee. This will be the third consecutive winter that will be impacted byLaNia. Some of our favorite winter hikes in Arkansas include the Triple Falls Trail in Jasper, the Lost Valley Trail in Ponca, Bridal Veil Falls Loop in Herbert Springs, and pretty much all of the trails at Petit Jean State Park. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin. US Dept of Commerce The Farmers Almanac's 2022 - 2023 extended winter forecast for Arkansas calls for a "Chilly near normal precipitation" winter. Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions are seen across central South America. LIVE: Major accident shuts down Colorado interstate as snow spreads ac 21-vehicle pileup forces Colorado interstate closure, California to get needed break from storms, Winter storm to clobber Colorado to Michigan with snow, January tornadoes are uncommon but not unheard of, Snow, ice and thunderstorms to return to interior Northeast, Report: Temperatures on Greenland are warmest in at least 1,000 years, Remains of last missing person from Hurricane Ian found in sunken boat, 1st sunrise of 2023 is days away in Americas northernmost town. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. Favorable things for a wetter-than-normal winter. The storied old journal's . If the early snowpack holds in western Canada, it may allow colder air, stronger cold fronts, to dive south. The AWSSI data is gathered every hour throughout the day. La Nia is associated with aretracted jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean. During this time, we see good potential for heavy snow that may reach as far south as Texas and Oklahoma . | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? We've been predicting weather since 1792during George Washington's presidency!and are traditionally 80% accurate! The US average is 205 sunny days. | Arctic Arkansas, Tips to save money this winter season | Arctic Arkansas. Winter Thoughts #1 - Our First Look at the Winter of 2022 - 2023! Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. Overall, La Nina conditions are associated with enhanced U.S. tornado activity, but more detailed aspects of ENSO may also be relevant (Lee et al., 2012). Stay safe during severe cold weather. On Jan. 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai volcano, an underwater volcano located about 2,200 miles northeast of Sydney, Australia, erupted in grand fashion, sending a significant plume of gas, ash and water vapor high into Earths atmosphere. During the years of 2022, 2023, and 2024, an event like no other struck the ENTIRE United States, unleashing total chaos upon the country. The extended winter forecast from the Farmers Almanac focuses on whether the temperature will be above or below average and if we will see above or below normal precipitation. 60-70% of La Nia winters in the past have brought more snowfall to Arkansas. However, in emergency situations where schools cannot adequately plan or prepare for distance learning, the district may close schools entirely, Clark said. 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